Every year the industry talks about a traffic decline in January and February.
From your point of view, is this really happening or is it an exaggerated myth?
For us, it is mostly a myth. My personal opinion is that this belief formed in the market due to cyclicality and the lifetime of bundles. In teams that are used to talking about winter seasonality, buyers often run old bundles until the end of December and only start finding new ones by mid-January.
Historically, these months are absolutely the same for us as any others. There may be deviations in user activity on the product side due to external factors affecting potential players, but all of this stays within a reasonable margin of error. With properly set media buying, traffic can be found in any month of the year.
Which verticals in Traffter are most sensitive to the post-holiday decline?
And which ones decrease minimally or even grow?
I would generally take seasonality and time of year out of the equation when analyzing sources. The strongest drivers of changes in traffic volume or quality are usually updates and modifications in the sources themselves. If Google or Facebook releases an update in January, October, or May — there’s no point blaming the month.
Regarding source growth, the mechanics are different. For teams whose sources do not grow month over month, I have bad news: you’re doing something wrong. Over the past year, FB, ASO, and SEO have only grown for us, regardless of seasonality or isolated issues. The market is extremely dynamic, and it’s important to address problems immediately rather than sit and wait for better times.
Are there GEOs where seasonal decline is more noticeable, and where it’s almost invisible?
Noticeable drops can occur only on specific days, for example during local holidays in Europe, LATAM, or Asia. The problem of traffic decline within a single GEO should be analyzed locally — discussing this on a global level makes no sense.
Do you have tips on how to maximize results in the winter season?
How to improve EPC, conversions, user activity?
In the context of winter holidays (Christmas, New Year), there are two things you can leverage:
Are there actions you do NOT recommend?
The most important thing buyers should never do is ride old bundles until the end of the year and then take a long vacation “because player activity is low.” The same applies to ASO, SEO, PPC, and UAC: if you are seeing drops, you are definitely doing something wrong. Folding your hands and waiting for things to improve on their own is a major mistake.
Forecast for this January–February: what awaits the market?
January and February will be a continuation of summer–autumn trends. Teams that still lack proper infrastructure will continue facing difficulties. Many teams hoped to “wait out the turbulence,” expecting a miracle. The last six months proved that the miracle won’t happen.
The main trend of the winter will be further adaptation of teams to current source challenges.
From our experience — all sources work; you just need to find the right approach.
